Since I picked Tarver to beat Hopkins lets just say I suck at picking fight outcomes. Now then.
If Chavez the shorter fighter can slip most of Arguello inside punches and consistantly return fire he can win. Unfortunately for Chavez this is the only way he can win.
I don't know if Arguello can ten count Chavez but surely he can hurt him bad enough to get the ref involved. I don't think he will, but it is a option. Arguello also can stay outside and catch Chavez early when Julio is mapping thinks out. Alexis has that HOLY SH#T I'm hit power. One stagger and that is your you know what.
Chavez cannot beat Alexis from the outside. Since that is two options to one I pick Arguello on points or a very early surprise KO.