The more I think about this fight, the more I am starting to like Ricardo Mayorga's chances.
Bottom line is that Hoya will have been off for 19 months once this fight goes off. Oscar isn't getting any younger at age 33, and 154 pounds has never been his proper weight.
In my opinion, Hoya hasn't scored a win since he beat the hapless Yory Boy Campas three years ago in May 2003. I thought Hoya lost to Felix Sturm. Add to that the fact that Hoya is coming off a knockout loss and none of this looks good.
This fight reminds me a little bit of when Ray Leonard fought Terry Norris: An aging, highly successful, former multi-weight champion, coming off a long lay-off and dropping down in weight to take on a lesser known, decent puncher for the WBC Super Welterweight title. Leonard was 34 when he faced Norris and Hoya is 33. Mayorga is the current WBC titlist just like Norris was. Hoya has a record of 37-4 and Leonard had a record of 36-1-1. Leonard was a heavy favorite just as Hoya is against Mayorga. Both are also Olympic Gold Medal winners.