Taylor-Pavlik Predictions, Result, and Discussion 9/29/07

[Husker]

I know I'm in the minority here but I feel that those picking Pavlik, at least in part, see him winning because he's the more exciting fighter and he did look better against Miranda than Jermain has, well, maybe ever.

I'm going with Taylor and I feel more and more confident the closer this gets to happening. Jermain is noticeable faster, more agile and more athletic, imo. His biggest fault that I can see is that he often stops to think, which at this stage of his career is puzzling. This isn't some 21 year old kid fresh from the amateurs after all.

Pavlik can bang, though and seems to take a pretty good shot. I believe Pavlik today hits much harder than Hopkins did when he first fought Taylor and he stunned him badly. But Hopkins is crafty and Taylor was fading in his first exposure to the brightest of lights. I don't think that happens here.

I see Jermain, picking and choosing the spots he engages and using his advantages to the fullest. If he has trained for the long haul, I think he'll have Kelly going or on the verge of it late.

Jermain taylor TKO10 Kelly Pavlik.

[Husker]

Yeah, I know Mr. B. I went back eight pages where it should be and gave up. Just happened to stumble on it.

Sad, the middleweight championship generating this little buzz.

[gregbeyer]

or taylor could suddenly fight like a mongose with his back to a tree trunk. i think pavlik wins it but ....stranger things have happened and i would not go betting the farm....
greg

[BDeskins]

I'm picking Pavlik to win by knockout!!

I've liked this kid every since I first saw him and I picked him to handle Edison Miranda fairly easily. Taylor will be his toughest fight, but in the end I think Pavlik is all around a better fighter. Taylor's only superior in defense, which he is not a lot better in that regard, but I think Pavlik will bust him up and eventually stop him late!

[hagler04]

I still say Taylor steps up to the plate and takes it in a great fight. One thing I'd worry about is stamina as Taylor tired in his other tough scraps vs Wright and Hopkins, but if anyone should tire more it's the gangly 6'2 kid (who I still don't know how he makes 160).

[BDeskins]

But the problem for Taylor now is that Wright and Hopkins were neither big hitters. Pavlik is a huge hitter and he seems to have all assets that is found in champions...especially his durability, skill and power...not to mention his confidence. I may be wrong, but I think Pavlik may turn out to be one of those special kind of fighters!

[hagler04]

But the problem for Taylor now is that Wright and Hopkins were neither big hitters. Pavlik is a huge hitter and he seems to have all assets that is found in champions...especially his durability, skill and power...not to mention his confidence. I may be wrong, but I think Pavlik may turn out to be one of those special kind of fighters!

You may be right. I was dead-wrong about the Miranda fight (though I thought both guys looked rather sloppy in that fight). I'm cautiously picking the more proven and experienced Taylor (who will be facing for the first time in a long time someone who's relatively easy to hit and a big target, something some fans forget) but would not be shocked if Pavlik wins.

[Dan Gunter]

I have never been sold on Taylor. I have not seen tremendous power out of him, and he does not appear to have great balance.

I'm a fan of Pavlik, whose last few fights have sold me on him.

But I'm still on the fence about this one. Taylor at least went 24 rounds with Hopkins, who showed that he still has something left in his last two fights.

So I'm going with a really gonzo "Gee, guys, I just ain't sure" on this one.

[rocky111]

Pavlick is awesome in a power fight and if you stand in front of him, he kills you. Miranda did that and he got nailed over and over. Pavlick also has a fine chin. He is also physically strong. So if Taylor FIGHTS HIM he will lose by a ko. But if he moves and moves and boxes and jabs and keeps his chin out of danger, I favor him. But if he moves into the wheelhouse of Pavlick its good by. Tony Zale, Jermain Taylor aint. I say though he moves and boxes and then its up to Pavlick to show us he is a real complete fighter. I favor Taylor but I root for Kelley as I feel his vic would be great for boxing.

[HE Grant]

I just caught the HBO promo for this fight and I ask you guys ; does Pavlik really have a shot or is he simply another well marketed fighter with the right complexion? They play up one victory of his. Who else has he beaten? How is his chin? Does he cut up easily? Does anyone know how Taylor beat him as an amateur?

Taylor has not looked great but most fail to acknowledge that he twice fought Hopkins on even terms, he fought Wright on even terms, he beat former welter champ and tough cutey Spinks ... Why does Pavlik even belong in the ring with him let alone on such a hyped fight? Can I ask, white hope?

[diggity]

On paper Pavlik does not stack up to Taylor whatsoever but on paper Taylor lacks an opponent like Pavlik. Someone with Pavlik's style is a potential nightmare for Taylor's style and I think the lack of fighting an opponent like Pavlik will cost Taylor at this point in the game. Pavlik is ripe to be taken apart by someone with exceptional movement & speed but other than Taylor being reasonably quick & possessing a nice jab, he is not all that above average. Taylor's made his paydays fighting champs that are over the hill & not fighting young lions like himself. He will have a very hard time with Pavlik's pressure & power. Pavlik may not look pretty doing it but I think he will KO Taylor ultimately. I doubt Taylor can stay out of harms way longer than 7 rounds & I dont think Taylor has enough power to bother Pavlik.

[newpoppop]

I think this has the makings of a good scrap. Taylor only fights as hard as he has to to win. Pavlik will pressure him, but may not be able to land on a much quicker guy than Miranda. If Pavlik gets to him early, he'll win by KO. If it goes rounds, I pick Taylor by a close decision.

[Julian Jackson]

There are so many good posts on this website about classic fights and fantasy match-ups. But people are being awfully quiet about sharing their opinions on what is (at least in my opinion) a highly anticipated contest between two worthy fighters who are not past their primes.

I admit that this is a tough fight to handicap. On one hand you have power, agression, and toughness of Pavlik, and on the other hand you have the skill and better experience of Taylor.

Taylor defeated Pavlik in the amateurs, but I do believe that Pavlik has come along much further from the amateur ranks than Taylor has. I have not seen ANY evidence that Emmanuel Steward has helped Taylor in any way, shape, or form. Taylor will still have an edge in skill, speed, and natural ability, but he has never fought anybody that I can remember (Bernard Hopkins included) that really brought the fight to him. And make no mistake about it, this natural ability of Taylor is not anything like what Roy Jones used to bring to the ring. This agressive style of Pavlik will certainly make him more susceptible to be hit himself, but I believe if it goes more than 3-4 rounds, that agression will wear on Taylor. I have never been impressed with Taylor's mental toughness or ring intelligence. I am not saying that he is not a very good fighter...because he is. But the ability to dig deep and come on strong when it matters is what seperates the true champions from just "good" fighters. In his last several fights, he has done nothing to close the show against opponents who he should have easily beaten. (In fact, I had Hopkins squeaking out a victory in both fights. Had Hopkins not conserved energy in the beginning of both those fights, there is no question in my mind he would have won them going away. Since Hopkins was 41 years of age at the time, I excused him for this reasonable strategy. I cannot extend such a courtesy for a fighter who should be in his physical prime)

Pavlik may indeed have a number of flaws, but they are at least crowd-pleasing ones. At the end of the day, I think he wants this fight more, and will wear down the cautious Taylor after some potentially shaky moments in the first few rounds.

[Julian Jackson]

Although it may still be too early to tell how good (or not good) Pavlik is, Emmanuel Steward"s preposterous comments above are making me lean even more strongly towards a Pavlik upset on Saturday.

Emmanuel Steward is usually a man of few words before a fight. But the comments he has made in this fight are so ludicrous, that they just can't be ignored. First he indicates that he has Taylor in better shape than J.C. Chavez, Oscar De La Hoya, and Wladamir Klitschko when he trained them. I sure hope so, because all three of them demonstrated SERIOUS, fight altering conditioning problems under Steward. By the time he trained Chavez, Julio was in serious decline, so I don't think there was much that could be done. (As a sidenote, in his prime, Chavez's conditioning was always incredible....in spite of his party habits). But De La Hoya was in his prime when Steward took over, and I believe all of his losses are primarily due to conditioning. As for Klitschko, I have two words: Lamon Brewster.

As Steward continues his comments, they only become more ridiculous. He actually goes on to say that "Surar Ray Leonard, Marvin Hagler, and SUGAR RAY ROBINSON! want no part of Taylor." Is this the same Jermain Taylor that drew with junior middleweight Winky Wright, struggled with junior middleweight Kassim Ouma (who 5 months earlier was HAMMERED by limited Roman Karmazin), and squeked by welterwight Corey Spinks? Comparing Jermain Taylor to the all time greats is so laughable that it really doesn't deserve further comment.

It sounds to me like Emmanuel Steward is talking up Taylor so Taylor will actually believe he is not going to get a whipping on Saturday. Because this type of talk is out of character for Steward, it just doesn't ring true with me. On Saturday, I don't think it is going to ring true with Taylor either, and hopefully a new champion (who doesn't mind fighting) is crowned.

[TDKO]

In the HBO "Countdown to Taylor Pavlik", near the end of the show Pavlik
gives the key statement as to why he will win this fight, (I believe), "Because
he is hungrier".
Taylor has the wealth and fame, even if he has not lived up to expectations,
he has the good life, and his place in boxing history may not be his motivation, at least not anymore.
Pavlik wants what Taylor has.
Sometimes matches like this come down to hunger, they are both talented,
in or near their primes, who wants it more and why?

[rocky111]

good point. If its a war that has to be considered and it means alot. I think Taylor will move and move and move. He trades and he dies. He has to pull teeth from Pavlick first. If he doesnt hell lose.

[HE Grant]

I'm just curious about how good Taylor really is. On one hand he fought even with Hopkins and Wright. Say what you want but those are still two very top guys and he was right there with them, having more natural ability at this time than either. However, ring history is filled with guys that based on amateur background and physical skills you would expect to be great but do not turn out that way...something is just missing ... guys like Johnny Bumphis, Bernard Taylor, Mark Breland and even Andrew Maynard come to mind.

Taylor may simply be a very good but not great fighter despite what appears to be great skills. I know nothing about Pavlik at all except HBO's hype for the fight but if he is as tough as toughted, if his chin holds, if his skin does not bust up, if he really has this great power, drive and stamina it will tell us a lot about Taylor. If Pavlik's turns out to be a 2007, middleweight version Gerry Cooney, that's another story.

It's interesting that Manny is talking so much here. It's not his style. It appears something has caught his eye somewhere and he's trying to motivate Taylor. I don't believe he has any reason to make Pavlik look bad. Why would he? It would diminish the luster off a huge Taylor win and all Manny's own accomplishment. Something is up and we'll see Saturday night.

[OMG65]

I can't see this one going the distance.
Admittedly I don't know much about Taylor but I do know that he will have to deal with the pressure Pavlik is going to put on him.Pavlik is Youngstown tough and he will go out on his shield if he has to.Not so sure about Taylor.This fight has the makings of a real good tussle.

[hagler04]

Steward in recent years has always talked up a bunch of BS to build up confidence in his often self-esteem challenged yet physically talented fighters. I remember him saying before Klitschko fought cruiserweight journeyman Eliseo Castillo that Castillo was a tougher opponent than Chris Byrd. He's been saying similar things regarding Cintron recently and how Kermit easily dominates all the other welters right now.

Taylor has natural cockiness but the criticism after his performances vs Wright, Ouma, and Spinks have affected him no question.

[Julian Jackson]

Are you F***ing kidding me? I am looking very much forward to this fight tomorrow, but to insinuate it is even in the top 100 most significant middleweight title fights of all time is ridiculous. In this day and age there are lots of fighters with undefeated records. (And it certainly helps if they give you a title shot in your 22nd bout). Had they fought in a different era, it certainly wouldn't have stayed that way for long. Just my opinion.

Come on Pavlik, please end this pretender's reign!

[DscribeDC]

Hey, I'm excited. A good, tough, evenly-matched non-PPV title fight that hasn't been cancelled because someone stubbed his toe or couldn't make weight.

Maybe I'm easy, but that's plenty for me! Bring it on!

[Punchdrunk]

Gotta go with the blue collar guy, looking for the upset. Pavlik, mid round ko.
Gary

[Julian Jackson]

OK, now that I read the full article, and not just the snipet from above, I agree that it was at least a good insigtful column.

Now let's just hope we get the fight we are expecting.

p.s. I would still like to hear more people weighing in on their picks before the fight, rather than just discussing the aftermath.

[Crold1]

Nixon: Thanks.

JJ: Thanks...for reading. I would disagree though...this fight could one day very well be at least a top 100 middleweight title fight. Time will tell...love to see the other 100 you'd put first though as of now.

[HE Grant]

I really know next to nothing about Pavlik but I do feel Taylor has a ton to bring , has fought the best in the world and would be surprised to see him lose ...

[diggity]

I thought it was a solid piece Cliff. The Nunn JT comparison was right on.

[Crold1]

Gracias...did you hit the interview link prior to the pick section...that was fun to do.

[ShawnTheBleeder]

I think Taylor is going to run and box his ears to a UD. I'm pulling for Pavlick, but it's too good to be true to have him actually win the title. That would be too cool.
Shawn

[Southpaw1982]

I believe Pavlik will win inside the distance tomorrow night, and most likely before the 10th round. Pavlik has been in with bigger punchers and fighters than Taylor has, and he took the best they had to offer and knocked them out.

I am aware however that bigger puncher does not necessarily mean better fighter, but then again who did Taylor fight before he got his title shot? An old and over the hill Joppy and Marquez, and a C-level fighter at best in Edouard.... not exactly a who`s who of the middleweight divsion now is it.

Taylor doesn`t hit harder than some of Pavlik`s previous opponents, and I don`t believe he hits hard enough to discourage Kelly from coming to him to get his own pound of flesh in. Taylor`s habit of backing himself into the ropes by anyone who applys pressure and cuts the ring off effectively on him will be his downfall in this fight.

If smaller fighters such as Wright and Ouma could back Taylor into the ropes, I don`t see why a stronger and bigger fighter in Pavlik wouldn`t be able to do it, and keep it up for longer. I am convinced Pavlik woud have stopped Ouma and Spinks had they fought, and might have well beaten Wright if given the chance.

Pavlik is the hungrier and tougher fighter of the two, as well as the harder puncher, and I believe that will be the difference in the end. And if he somehow doesn`t knock Taylor out, his workrate would likely earn him the decision.

I also believe HBO is hoping for a Pavlik win, as he is far more marketable than Taylor who I believe has fallen out of favour with the network due to his recent performances. Pavlik is a pressure fighter who can punch like nobody`s business and makes for good fights, which is a far cry from what Taylor has been.

Just my 0.02$

[GorDoom]

Once again stalwart CBZ board member, Zev, has volunteered to cover the fight for us. For that he definitely gets a Tip O' The Fedora!

Please keep all discussion of this card to this thread. Redundant threads will be deleted.

thanks,

GorDoom