Taylor-Pavlik Predictions, Result, and Discussion 9/29/07

[apollack]

I only gave Taylor 2 rounds, 3 at the most. Kelly's jab kept him up on points. It landed so solidly and consistently. And he was sneaking in occasional rights to the jaw that had underrated effect. Jermain was surprised at how far away Kelly could hit him. Kelly should have stayed on him in the corners more and worked the body a lot more, because the few left hooks he landed, I really thought he took the wind out of Jermain. I analogize this to Foreman-Moorer in the sense that when you get hit that cleanly and solidly, it has a cumulative effect. Taylor got hit way too cleanly and solidly every round by those jabs, which actually backed him up.

Taylor was throwing from way too far away, and looked overly amped and tight early. After the knockdown round, he was trying to take big rests and then occasionally explode with a right or hook or a flurry and try to test Kelly. However, Pavlik got smarter and started pumping that jab in better, moved his head and rolled slightly better, and when he wanted to take a break, stepped back a bit better. His biggest problem was when he stepped into range without throwing or when he was done, not stepping back and jabbing.

Bottom line is that relatively light punchers like Wright and Hopkins were able to nail Taylor, back him up, so when a stiff puncher like Pavlik hits you consistently, it's going to break you. Taylor's defensive liabilities got even more exposed because he was in there with a guy with a lot of height and reach and more power than he'd ever seen as a pro.

[Elwill7847]

I had Pavlik winning 4 rounds to 2 rounds...up by 1 point.

[bomma]

apollack the Foreman comparison is a good one and actually when you think about it Foreman when you watch him doesn't look that quick or that smooth but he hits hard I would say same for Pavlik

[kenmore]

Taylor reports that he thought he was losing the fight in the middle rounds, and as a result he made the mistake of not allowing himself to relax enough. I read this on ABC.

[apollack]

He thought he was losing because he was losing, despite what the judges say. Both he and Kelly thought Pavlik was winning, and that's how the judges should have had it.

Other than the knockdown round, Jermain was hardly landing, Kelly was rolling and dipping, and when Kelly landed, they were solid - right on the jaw. I was surprised Jermain took it as well and as long as he did, and quite frankly was impressed at how well he conned Kelly, because I thought he was hurt on a number of occasions from rights but played it off relatively well. Bottom line though, is the mind can be tough, but the body will give way if you keep getting hit that cleanly and consistently.

[Dan Gunter]

Pavlik clearly and cleanly beat a tough fighter: a fighter who went 24 rounds with a still-dangerous Hopkins and 12 rounds with a very tough fighter in Wright.

Pavlik himself is perhaps still a work in progress. But I give him high marks for his toughness.

And, yes, I had him up at the time of the stoppage. Also, I think the stoppage was appropriate. In fact, I was screaming, "Stop the fight!" when Smoger stepped in.

[kenmore]

It's impressive that Pavlik stormed back to win after being on the verge of a kayo defeat in round two. Might we have a new Matthew Saad Muhammad on our hands? Let's hope so.

[apollack]

At first I thought he at least deserved a count. However, Taylor was getting hit with a lot of clean shots trapped up on the ropes, and there was one hook that made him momentarily go to sleep, just like when Zertuche just went limp for that split moment against Pavlik. When that happens, the fight needs to stop. Otherwise you can have a Griffith-Kid Paret situation. So, in the final analysis, you can't fault Smoger for jumping in there.

[gregbeyer]

i did not see the fight ...but i did pick kelly.

anyone think this might do jermain some good?

greg

[evander]

This fight was the way Leonard/Hagler should have went. Leonard , early out of the blocks ....then Hagler methodically moving forward wearing him down and stopping him later in the fight. I can dream can't I....? This was a great fight...don't think Taylor will use the rematch clause.

[BDeskins]

I've been touting Pavlik for a good while now and picked him to easily beat Edison Miranda and I picked him to knock out Taylor as well. I think the kid can be a very special fighter if he stays on track.

[PeteLeo]

It's impressive that Pavlik stormed back to win after being on the verge of a kayo defeat in round two. Might we have a new Matthew Saad Muhammad on our hands? Let's hope so.

Well, Pavlik doesn't take nearly as much sustained punishment as Saad seemed to in every fight, only to come back for a KO win. On the other hand, Kelly goes down a lot more than prime Saad did, too. I've seen Pavlik on the floor about five times now, and to his credit he has shown steel balls in getting up every time and knocking the opponent out. He appears to possess great self-confidence. Even after getting hammered in the second tonight, there didn't seem to be a moment that he wasn't convinced that he was going to wear down and wear out Taylor. It certainly wouldn't hurt him to hold his hands a little higher in the early rounds, however. PeteLeo.

[BDeskins]

I missed the fight due to a fishing trip, so I'll have to watch the replay. I would typically be very upset that I missed the fight live, but I had the best fishing trip that I've had in a long, long time and caught some of the biggest largemouth bass that I've ever caught, so I cannot get to upset for missing the live fight!

[Dan Gunter]

BDeskins: A man has to know where his priorities are!

Anyway, you can watch the replays. There's nothing like watching in real time--but there's nothing like having a big fish on line, either!

I'm interested in seeing how Taylor responds to this fight. In the postfight interview, he was clearly disappointed in his performance. But he clearly had doubts about himself before the fight. How does he respond now?

[ricky]

Hell of a fight. I had Taylor up 57-56 at the time of the KO. Taylor let a golden opportunity pass him by in the second round. Pavlik IMO still has a major problem with keeping his hands up, especially after he fires off his one-two. He doesn't bring his handfs back up. He was wide open for counter hooks all night. Taylor was waitng for the right and landing some good counters. He did an excellent job picking up on Pavliks lack of variety and was winning two in a row IMO. In that last round Pavlik finally mixed it up, he did not throw his right as often and used mainnly his left. Taylor let his gaurd down for a moment and Pavlik exploded with that right hand. Hell of a finish.

I picked Pavlik in this one and I was confident in my pick. To be honest I am 50/50 on who wins the rematch after seeing this fight. I see too many flaws Taylor could come back and expose next time. Pavlik has just not cleaned up his defense like I would've liked to see for this one. If a few of punches don't miss inn that second round and maybe Taylor pulls away with an exciting win.

Pavlik is a hard puncher with a great heart though and he will be a tough figter to beat for anyone. I'm just not sure he can pull this off again, especially if it takes place at 166.

[BDeskins]

This is what I was catching tonight!





This one weighed right around 8 pounds,




This one was between 7 and 8 pounds. My friend and I caught 17 in all and they were all in the 3 to 8 pound range, so it was a great night of fishing.

Sorry about posting this here, but I thought I would show why I was unable to watch the Pavlik-Taylor fight live!

[PeteLeo]

That was the same expression Pavlik had while holding up the championship belt.

Do bass only come out at night? PeteLeo.

[PeteLeo]

I wish HBO could have gotten a camera on Harry Aroyo, too. He may not have been Mancini, but he was an honest, solid workman and had his share of exciting performances (I still watch the Terrance Alli bout from time to time). PeteLeo.

[diggity]

I doubt Taylor can stay out of harms way longer than 7 rounds

I also didnt think Taylor's power would bother Pavlik & boy was I wrong about that. I couldn't believe Taylor wasn't able to finish him off in the 2nd.

Pavlik will probably never make it look easy or pretty but he has all the right stuff to gets the job done regardless. There is something to be said about a guy who can get up off the canvas to KO the other guy again & again. You can't put a value on that trust & confidence in yourself.

Pavlik does not have all that many more flaws than Taylor IMO & I don't think Pavlik gets enough credit for his skills. His average speed, size & lankyness doesn't make for beautiful aesthetics but he is more than just a brute with a big punch. Taylor got hit with a lot of shots I didnt think he would get hit with & Pavlik was right in there boxing with Taylor after the KD. Pavlik did fall into some 1-2 ruts at points but I'm sure nerves came into play. I thought Taylor looked the fresher of the 2 but Pavlik will always be dangerous up till the last bell.

Although I had him losing close, Taylor fought with balls & earned a ton of respect back in this loss IMO. I don't see anything changing at 166 but Taylor should get right back into a rematch. He was very much in the fight & either guy could have been KOd. Its always interesting to see how a fighter comes back after a KO loss. I would have like to see Taylor have the opportunity to get up also but thats boxing. It was a good stoppage.


Good solid win for Berto tonight. He looked a little shaken in the first but he was in total control from that point onward. He's still a work in progress but a fun & explosive fighter to watch nonetheless.

[ShawnTheBleeder]

I'm glad I was wrong. Was shocked to see Pavlik get rocked, for those who didn't see it he really had to dig down to survive Round 2. That's all Taylor talked about in the dressing room afterwards with Merchant, wasting to much energy trying to finish him early.

Ron, you're right on Smoger. Steve Smother is more like it. Taylor was done, but he did leave a window open, if Taylor's team were dicks they could have made Smother a scapegoat and ruined a great night for everyone because of one error in officiating.

Taylor rushed out of the ring immediately afterwards. I was surprised that he said he wanted Pavlik next. But what do you say? He was gracious in defeat.

Great to see a changing of the guard via TKO. And nobody beats Taylor on the cards, just ask Hopkins and Winky.
Shawn

[Off The River]

Obvioulsy Mr Liptons eye is better trianed than mine, but I felt the stoppage was just. I thought he caught him with a really nice uppercut at one point and that was the one which put him down.
He may very well have prevented a brutal KO. Instead, Taylor will be much better off health wise.

[HE Grant]

I have to disagree with Ron about the stopage shots...the first right hand distorted Taylor's face in a way I have not seen since Joe Walcott ... he was blasted by some terrific thunder...Pavlic simply has extremely heavy hands and he appears to retain power through out a fight opposed to losing it like a Foreman or Shavers.

I truly thought Taylor fought the best and bravest fight he could. He has his own champion's heart. He had Pav badly hurt in the second and tried his best but could not finiish him. In the middle rounds...maybe 4 - 6 it looked like he was beating him on ring generalship and overall skill. However, Pav is like a machine and keeps coming. He has a good , hard jab and slips more punches than it appears.

I don't know what Taylor can do in a rematch. If he tries to do a Terry Norris 2 vs Brown I don't know if he has the stamina or ability to keep Pav off him. To keep Pav off he has to trade and explode a bit like he did last night and we saw how that worked. I also do not think confidence wise he is coming back so quick. He looked lost in that post fight dressing room.

[Julian Jackson]

HeGrant, et al,

I told you this was coming. Ironically, the knockout came after what was, in my opinion, one of Taylor's best performances. But you just can't teach heart. Pavlik showed it in spades, and as soon as he turned up the heat, Taylor folded. I do agree that a Terry Norris vs. Simon Brown strategy would be the smartest (and probably the only intelligent) strategy against Pavlik if they do get a rematch. Pavlik still has a number of glaring flaws (and paid dearly for getting too cute in round 2), but nobody can question his toughness. I have often questioned Taylor's, and finally he fought somebody who was willing to exploit it. I doubt Pavlok's reign will be particularly long, but I will always remember this victory fondly. (In spite of the heinous OSU Buckeye trunks)

[Julian Jackson]

And Emmanuel Steward should not be let off the hook so easily, either. His pre and post-fight comments were ridiculous. He has certainly had a hand in the carrers of a lot of good fighters, but I have always felt him to be wildly overrated. (Does anybody remember Naseem Hamed's performance against Marco Antonio Barrera?)

[OMG65]

Message to Arum if you're serious about salvaging boxing.
Get Pavliks first title defense most likely in Youngstown,on free network prime time TV.Hype the hell out of this guy and make him the biggest star in boxing.Maybe this will get the athletes who used to want to be fighters interested in the sport again.Strike while the irons hot.Kelly Pavlik might be boxings last chance to get off life support.

[Nixon]

Obvioulsy Mr Liptons eye is better trianed than mine, but I felt the stoppage was just. I thought he caught him with a really nice uppercut at one point and that was the one which put him down.
He may very well have prevented a brutal KO. Instead, Taylor will be much better off health wise.

Taylor was finished. Smoger got in there at the right time.

Neither fighter is a "great fighter" but they have great hearts. They have some severe limitations which will not allow anyone to forget not only a prime Hopkins, but Toney, Sumbu Kalambay, Mike McCallum, Jackson, Nunn, McClelland, and other good middleweights of the last 20 years. A well prepared Herol Graham would beat both.

I'll give Taylor this. Wanting an immediate rematch after that brutal a ko shows guts. A rematch could conceivably end Taylor's career. He has a lot of pride.

[kikibalt]

I hate to second guess Rod here, but I though Steve Smoger stopped the fight at the right time, when Taylor went down and the way he went down I got a flashback of the Griffith-Paret fight.

Two things
One, Taylor showed that he has the heart of a champion and went out like a champion.

Two, Pavlic not only has the heart of a champion, but that he is a great finisher.

[hagler04]

Very good fight, glad to see it met expectations. Not an awful stoppage. I think Taylor deserved a standing 8 count but I don't think it would've made much of a difference. Pavlik def. has that deceptive strength from his lon gangly frame. His recuperative abilities were also VERY impressive, I thought he was done in the 2nd.

I do have to disagree strongly with Lederman's and several others' here scorecards. I had Taylor winning every round except two (I believe it was rds 3 and 6) on my scorecard (but two of those for Taylor could've been scored even so I can see a closer card) Pavlik had a few flurries when Taylor would let himself sit on the ropes but when they were in the center of the ring Taylor was working good quick counters and a beautiful double jab I hadn't see from him since the Hopkins fights. But I think two things really hurt Jermain: A lack of defence, and the fact that at 160 his stamina is really awful. The way that by round 3 he already had to rest on the ropes (as he did for Winky) says a lot. Taylor needs to move up to 168 to have a chance at any more longterm success. Oddly even though Pavlik is bigger he seems to have a much easier time at 160 . . .odd body type.

[HE Grant]

I'd like to see Pav tighten up his D. IF he's been down 5 times as Peteleo says, he can be stopped. However, he stood in there with the best Taylor I've seen and took it ...

HBO must be giddy ... if promoted right, they have a new, better Gatti ...

[mrbig1]

I'm still in a state of shock. I thought Pav was Tailor made for the champ. Not the first time I've been wrong.