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De la Hoya v. Mosley - A Replay of Leonard v. Duran?

Adam’s Analysis - by Adam Pollack
In 1980, the world welterweight champion was 139 pound Olympic gold medalist Sugar Ray Leonard.  Leonard was 27-0 with 18 knockouts.  He was about to fight former lightweight champion Roberto Duran.  Leonard had fought as a welterweight his entire three year professional career and had beaten
fighters such as Floyd Mayweather, Randy Shields, Javier and Armando Muniz,
Adolfo Viruet and Marcos Geraldo before stopping Wilfred Benitez in the 15th
round to win the title.   He had defended the title once, against Dave Green, prior to fighting Duran.

Roberto Duran won the lightweight title from Ken Buchanan in 1972.  He made
12 successful title defenses through 1978, 11 by knockout.  Two of those
defenses were 1974 and 1978 knockout wins over Esteban Dejesus, who had
knocked Duran down and defeated him in a non-title bout ten round decision
late in 1972.  After Duran’s last title defense against DeJesus, he decided
to move up to welterweight.  He fought nine times as a welterweight before
challenging Leonard, including an impressive ten round decision over former
welterweight champion Carlos Palomino.  A professional for thirteen years,
Duran had fought 74 bouts prior to the Leonard fight, losing only to DeJesus.

Common opponents included Javier Muniz and Adolfo Viruet.  Duran had fought Javier Muniz as a lightweight in 1977, winning a ten round non-title bout,
and Adolfo Viruet in 1978 after his final lightweight title defense against DeJesus, also winning a ten round decision.  Leonard fought Muniz as a welterweight in 1978, stopping him in the first round.  He won a ten round decision against Viruet in 1979.

Although Leonard was a boxer/puncher, and more of a stylist than the ever aggressive Duran, as the natural welterweight, many believed that Leonard
would be stronger.  They were wrong.  Duran took the fight to Leonard with
his patented swarming pressure and strong right hand, and Leonard either
obliged or was forced to fight Duran’s inside fight as a result of the pressure and the hard punches Duran landed.  Although the fight was close, Duran did more damage and won the fifteen round decision.  He had moved up twelve pounds to defeat a legitimate welterweight champion.

132 pound gold medalist Oscar de la Hoya (32-1, 26 knockouts) was also a
powerful lightweight and junior lightweight, defeating fighters such as Jeff
Mayweather, Jorge Paez, John John Molina, Rafael Ruelas, Genaro Hernandez,
and James Leija.  As a lightweight and junior lightweight champion, he knocked out  every one of his title defense opponents except for Molina.  As a junior welterweight, he defeated Julio Cesar Chavez and Miguel Angel Gonzalez in title bouts.  He has been a welterweight since 1997, when in his first welterweight fight he won the world title from Pernell Whitaker in a close decision.  He stopped Chavez as a welterweight and knocked down Ike Quartey twice en route to a close twelve round decision.  Although not quite as powerful as a welterweight, he has gone 9-1 with 6 knockouts, with his only loss a controversial decision to Felix Trinidad.

Although a professional for approximately the same amount of time as Oscar de la Hoya, Sugar Shane Mosley (34-0, 32 knockouts) won the lightweight title after de la Hoya had won the welterweight title. Like Duran, Mosley was also an extremely powerful lightweight champion.  Sugar Shane successfully knocked out all eight of his championship challengers, going the championship distance only once, when he won the lightweight title from Phillip Holiday in 1997.  He has been a welterweight for less than a year, stopping both Wilfredo Rivera and Willy Wise.

Common professional opponents have included Narcisco Valenzuela, John Molina, James Leija, and Wilfredo Rivera.  In knocking out Valenzuela and Leija, de la Hoya was clearly stronger than Mosley in dealing with his foes.   However, Valenzuela dropped Oscar before being stopped in the first round.

  Oscar has been knocked down four times as a professional, twice at junior lightweight (Valenzuela and Campanella), and twice as a welterweight (a flash knockdown by Whitaker and solidly by the hard punching Ike Quartey), while Shane has never tasted the canvas.

Shane took longer to stop Valenzuela and Leija (five and nine rounds respectively, as opposed to one and two for Oscar), piling up the punishment with blazing combinations, a sharp right hand, and digging body shots, doing less damage with one punch than Oscar.  However, against Molina, Oscar struggled to a decision against a fighter who could penetrate his superior reach and work on the inside.  Mosley stopped Molina, finding the inside game to his liking.  Molina’s fight against Oscar might provide a basic blueprint for Mosley.

Against Rivera, Oscar demonstrated his powerful outside boxing ability, although remaining cautious generally and not maintaining a high punch output.  Rivera was stopped on cuts in the eighth round and did not appear to be headed towards a knockout.  Mosley did not power box Rivera on the outside the way de la Hoya did, choosing instead to throw vicious combinations on the inside.  Rivera’s good chin and workmanlike effort kept the fight close on some judges scorecards, but eventually the punishment he incurred lead to a knockout in the tenth.  The only other time Mosley hit an opponent and could not force him backward was against Phillip Holiday.  Mosley demonstrated good footwork in outboxing Holiday.  Although he demonstrated that he can box and was hit less than he would be on the inside, Mosley punched less and demonstrated that going backwards is not necessarily his most comfortable strategy.

De la Hoya, like Leonard, is an Olympic gold medalist and is considered the stronger, more natural welterweight.  Oscar is more powerful than Leonard, but stylistically at welterweight Mosley resembles Duran more so than de la Hoya.  Like Roberto Duran, Shane Mosley has moved up from lightweight to fight a more natural welterweight and former gold medalist.  Mosley’s inside attrition style is similar to Duran’s, and, like Duran, has shown good strength at welterweight.  Keep in mind that Mosley was fighting at 139 pounds as an amateur, so the jump in weight may be a bit more comfortable for him than many believe.  However, he has only had two welterweight fights, which leaves some doubt as to how well he has matured at the weight. 

  Regardless, Oscar is definitely the more physically imposing fighter.

Although Oscar can brawl, he is at his best when he uses height, reach and relaxed power from the outside and looking to counter a fighter who attempts to get inside.  Remember, in their second bout, when Leonard boxed, he easily defeated Duran.  Oscar needs to move subtly, rather than excessively as he did in the Trinidad fight, because he is not the cutie that Leonard was.  Excessive footwork, his own hard punches, and Mosley body work may fatigue de la Hoya.

Oscar has been talking like a pure puncher lately, but one never knows whether it is just talk until the fight  occurs.  Holiday demonstrated that a fighter who can come forward and take Mosley’s punches can throw him off a bit, but it is unlikely that Mosley will move quite as much, choosing instead to accept clinches and an inside war.  Furthermore, unlike Rivera and Holiday,  Oscar has never been a guy who throws a lot of relaxed punches and continually walks forward, accepting whatever incoming is presented.  It just isn’t his style.

James Leija gave Mosley difficulties with some subtle footwork, which suggests Oscar’s best strategy would be to present subtle footwork of his own, looking to counter and maximize his height and reach advantage.  Mosley will be well served by using some outside work and angles so he can pick and choose his charges to the inside and not allow Oscar to time him on the way in.  Once he is on the inside he needs to work to the body and hope to wear Oscar out in preparation for an onslaught of right hands and uppercuts late in the fight.

The issues surrounding this fight are whether, like Leonard, Oscar will abandon all footwork and/or be forced to fight Shane’s fight on the inside, whether the former lightweight Mosley is strong enough to stand in there with a more natural welterweight and can elude both the big hooks on the way in and the uppercuts once inside, and whether Oscar can keep up with Mosley if he allows him to bang the body on too often or fatigues himself by punching too hard or moving too much.  Although Oscar punches bigger with one punch, Mosley generally works more, especially on the inside with body punches, is as quick or quicker than de la Hoya, and has a bit better defense overall.  However, Oscar’s use of footwork and height and reach potentially evens out the defensive matchup.  Oscar de la Hoya will be fighting the fastest fighter he has ever faced, and Shane Mosley will be fighting the biggest and strongest fighter he has ever faced.  It is never clear how a fighter will react to a new experience, but on June 17 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, we will find out.

   




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