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09/17/2004 Archived Entry: "Technical Analysis of the Hopkins-De La Hoya Matchup"
Technical Analysis of the Hopkins-De La Hoya Matchup
By Adam Pollack
Why Hopkins Will Likely Win
Forget all the hype and clichés and comparisons with other fights. Let’s get right to the analysis of these fighters. Allow me to play advocate for both sides.
At age 23, Bernard Hopkins lost his 1988 pro debut fighting as a light heavyweight. He went down in weight and won 22 straight fights thereafter, becoming a top 160 pound middleweight contender. In 1993, he lost a competitive 12 round decision to Roy Jones, Jr., 116-112 on all three cards (8-4 in rounds), for the vacant IBF middleweight crown. Even in a loss, Hopkins showed he could deal with speed and power and be in the fight (only one other boxer had gone the distance with Roy to that point). Sure Jones won, but for the first time, he didn’t look good. However, Hopkins was too conservative, and it cost him. Oscar De La Hoya had turned pro the previous year and at the time was boxing as a 135 pound lightweight.
In 1994, Hopkins fought Segundo Mercado for the again vacant IBF crown and was knocked down twice en route to a 12 round draw. That was the last blemish on his record. Bernard won the rematch with a 7th round knockout. He’s been undefeated for ten years. He defended the title against all comers, scoring both early and late knockouts (Steve Frank lasted just 24 seconds, while Bo James was stopped in the 11th). Hopkins defeated punchers and boxers, southpaws and conventional fighters. He demonstrated versatility, boxing both on the inside and outside, adapting to his opponents. He’s defended his title a record 18 times.
The fight that put Hopkins on the map with the average fan was his 2001 12th round knockout of Felix Trinidad. He was better than Felix both on the inside and the outside, and gradually dismantled him. We all knew Felix could be outboxed, because Oscar did it, but Hopkins did it better. He didn’t mostly move as Oscar did. He punched often, and he punched with power. He boxed, but he fought on the inside too. His defense was sound enough such that he remained in range more often than Oscar did and he didn’t feel the need to move as much. He knew that he could deal with power. He had proven it against hard punching fighters like Iowa’s Antwun Echols. Also unlike Oscar, he paced himself very well, knowing when to move, but when to settle down so as not to wear himself out.
Conversely, Oscar de la Hoya feared Felix Trinidad’s power and did not have as much confidence defensively. Therefore, he felt he needed to move more, and as a result did not pace himself well, fatiguing himself by over-moving. This also meant that he could not keep up the punch output.
When de la Hoya does settle down and remain in range, he gets hit much more often than does Hopkins, and his eyes tend to puff up. Also, Hopkins paces himself better and usually finishes fights as strong or stronger than he begins them. De la Hoya only finishes well when he maintains a low punch output for most of the rounds.
Oscar is a spurt fighter who likes to take big breaks in between his lighting fast combinations. He also often fails to carefully select his punches. Hopkins will be more consistent in his output and thoughtful in his punch selection and make Oscar fight when he wants a rest. If Bernard fights his usual style, he will maintain a better pace and break Oscar’s body down more than anyone he has faced. That means Bernard may force Oscar to fight a pace that will make it difficult for de la Hoya to finish well. It may also be a pace that will expose Oscar’s defensive deficiencies.
At 44-2-1 with 31 KOs, Bernard has the size, intelligence, and experience to deal with De la Hoya. He is slightly taller, so that removes Oscar’s typical height and reach advantage which served him well in the lower weight divisions. Bernard fought as a middleweight when Oscar was fighting as a 130 pound junior lightweight. Oscar is not a naturally big man. He has fought at 130, 135, 140, and 147 for most of his career. De la Hoya first moved up to 154 pounds in 2001, almost ten years after his pro debut. When you aren’t naturally that big, usually you don’t hit quite as hard, take it quite as well, or have the same conditioning that you would at your best weight.
De la Hoya has only had five fights in the 150 – 160 pound range, and only one of them was at 160. Two of those bouts were against former smaller men like himself. Mosley was a former 135 pound champion, and Campas used to box at 147. Fernando Vargas could be considered a big man, but he turned pro at 147, and was knocked out by Trinidad at 154. Javier Castillejo’s claim to fame was that he outboxed Keith Mullings.
Most analysts and Oscar claim that he did not do well against Felix Sturm because he took him lightly and did not train properly. I disagree. He did not do well against Sturm because Sturm is a true 160 pound middleweight who was not bothered by Oscar’s power, had a good, technical defense, and was able to remain in Oscar’s range and exploit some of his defensive deficiencies. That does not augur well for Oscar against Bernard.
Bernard Hopkins is a technically sound fighter who can box or brawl and has enough pop in his punches to hurt you. He isn’t a killer puncher, but he will drop you and break you down over time. He can keep a good pace for all 12 rounds. Hopkins’ best punches are his right and right uppercut (both of which hit Oscar), but don’t sell short his jab either. He has hit hard enough to take out strong fighters and relaxed durable boxers alike. Joe Lipsey, John David Jackson, Simon Brown, Antwun Echols, and Felix Trinidad were all broken down. Even the guys Bernard decisions either kiss the canvas at some point or are thoroughly demoralized by the end. De la Hoya has been decked multiple times in his career - Narcisco Valenzuela, Giorgio Campanella, Pernell Whitaker, and Ike Quartey, all sent him down. True, he hasn’t been decked in five years, but it remains to be seen what will happen when he gets hit solidly at 160.
Why De la Hoya Can Win
Oscar de la Hoya has fought the best his division’s had to offer and has never been soundly defeated. His loss to Trinidad was controversial. His two losses to Mosley were competitive and close, and many say debatable. This is a man who usually finds a way to win. Even in his three losses, he was very competitive and lost razor close.
Oscar often likes to have an edge. Most fail to see it in this one, but it is there. Hopkins is due for a loss. He’s been boxing as a pro since 1988, and is 39 years old. It may be imperceptible to the average fan, but in the last couple of years, Bernard has shown a bit of age. He isn’t quite as sharp, as quick, or as active as he used to be. Since Trinidad in 2001, his opponent caliber has been poor.
Conversely, Oscar has been used to a variety of skilled, sharp, quick opponents. De la Hoya has fought a higher caliber of opponent on a more consistent basis. He has fought champions, names like Troy Dorsey, Jorge Paez, John Molina, Rafael Ruelas, Genaro Hernandez, James Leija, Miguel Gonzalez, Pernell Whitaker, Julio Cesar Chavez, Ike Quartey, Felix Trinidad, Shane Mosley, Arturo Gatti, and Fernando Vargas.
Bernard has no more power or speed than anyone that Oscar has faced. Conversely, since 2001, Bernard has not fought anyone who comes close to the speed, strength, or skill level of Mosley or de la Hoya. Shane Mosley may not be a natural middleweight, but he isn't weak, and Bernard Hopkins is going to seem slow in comparison. Unlike Hopkins, Oscar is used to having to react quickly, having just fought Mosley last year. Hell, even Sturm was quicker than anyone Hopkins has faced of late. Oscar stopped Fernando Vargas in 2002 in the 11th round, and one thing you have to give Fernando is power. Thus, it is unlikely that Hopkins is going to hit any harder, even at 160, than men like Vargas and Trinidad did at lower weights. No one has walked through Oscar, whether they were boxers or punchers.
Not since 1993 has Hopkins boxed a fighter with the overall ability of Oscar de la Hoya. And Bernard lost that one. Oscar brings a blend of speed, power, and some footwork, all of which Bernard has not seen since Jones, Jr., ten years ago. Hopkins’ most memorable performances have been against aggressive punchers, not quick guys who can move a bit. Bernard really hasn’t faced too many boxer-punchers. Trinidad just came forward with a one dimensional attack. The moving type boxers Bernard has fought either just ran or were weak, or did not have Oscar’s speed.
Speed is the X factor in this one. Bernard’s defense has looked good, but at 39, he may not react as quickly to some of those lightning left hooks and uppercuts of Oscar’s, and he may get hit with something he doesn’t see coming. None of Hopkins’ title opponents have thrown quick combinations the way Oscar can. Don’t entirely discount a one punch knockout, or a knockdown which gets de la Hoya enough respect such that he can box and keep the pace to his liking. Actually, Oscar may not even need to land that punch. Hopkins’ respect for de la Hoya’s speed, power, and boxing ability may allow Oscar to box in a comfortable manner. It all depends upon how risk-adverse Hopkins will be. But there is a Catch-22: Not taking risk may be the wrong strategy by keeping the pace slow, but taking risk may allow Oscar to catch him.
Of course Bernard is a good boxer too, but he isn’t going to show Oscar anything he hasn’t seen. Oscar has the speed edge, and by remaining on the outside, Bernard might just be allowing de la Hoya to keep a slower pace, which would be to Oscar’s liking.
Here’s where you have to factor in the judging and refereeing. Both fighters have made enemies in this sport, but Hopkins has upset a whole lot more folks with his open criticisms. And Hopkins isn’t a cash cow like Oscar is. You also have to factor in the crowd support and judging psychology, which tends to reward the underdog attempting to pull off the miracle. If the rounds are close, even arguable, they are likely going to Oscar. Thus, with some speed, occasional respect acquiring power shots, and a bit of footwork, Oscar could make this a close, competitive fight and pull it off.
Referee Bayless is generally a fair referee, but the question will be whether he allows Bernard to rough up Oscar on the inside. Hopkins occasionally holds and hits, and sometimes low. It will be important for Oscar that the referee not allow Hopkins to grab behind his head or to the side of his neck. If Hopkins does not listen, there could be an excuse to take points off.
Bottom line here is that Oscar de la Hoya isn’t a former gold medalist and champion in multiple weight divisions for nothing. He’s a guy who finds ways to win in big fights, so discounting his chances might be a mistake.
Adam Pollack is a coach at the ICOR Boxing Club and may be reached for comments at apollack11@hotmail.com
